In response to yesterday’s post, Reader Rich asked, “Are you saying that something along the lines of the Mint actually IS in play right now?” My response: I wish! When I wrote that I was merely hoping to convey the notion that for all I know there might be something as awesome as the U.S. Mint deal that’s ready for the taking. But that line of thinking got me to wondering: suppose the U.S. Mint deal happened now instead of when it did. How long would it have lasted?
For those of you who don’t remember the U.S. Mint deal: back in 2008–the first post on FWF was June 12, 2008–the Mint found itself with a mandate to mint a lot of coins that most people didn’t want. Its solution was to let people buy as many boxes as they wanted and then ship them free of charge. Oh, and did I mention they took credit cards with no surcharge?
That’s right: the U.S. government was willing to let its citizens use points-earning credit cards to buy currency and thereby skirt all that “cash equivalent” stuff in the cardholder terms and conditions. But that’s not the amazing thing–what’s incredible is that this deal lasted for three years! Here’s the NPR article that marked the end of the deal if you’re curious, and here’s the WSJ article from 2009 that, shockingly, did not kill the deal.
It’s only been 2.5 years since that deal ended, but it feels like longer. A lot has changed since then: the blog and forum ecosystem is such that deal news spreads more quickly to more people and consequently things like the Mint deal can get killed by publicity more easily. (Though as MilesAbound made clear in the comments yesterday he doesn’t miss it one bit.)
Which brings me to the headline question: how long would the Mint deal last if (a) it had never happened, and (b) it started today? It wouldn’t die instantly, but I feel pretty certain it wouldn’t last three years since it would be a lot more popular.
Is this a bad thing? Sort of. I would postulate the existence of an ideal level of popularity that maximizes the equation:
(# of people doing the deal) * (length of time the deal is good for) = total deal-seekers’ gain
If there are too few people money is left on the table, but if there are too many people then some part of the retail-financial-industrial complex is going to lose too much money and they’ll shut the deal down.
In graphical form it would look something like this:
The problem is that the “Yay!” inflection point is (a) unknown and (b) unstable. People on the left side of the curve, of course, have no problem with a deal not being popular enough, while people on the right side of the curve want in on the action. I’m sympathetic to both sides: I like being in on a deal–heck, I just like knowing about a hot deal even if I’m not involved–but at the same time it’s better to have money left on the table than no money earned at all.
My approach is to put things out there but not spell it out too much. I don’t know if that’s the best approach, but it’s what I’m doing for now. In my time blogging I’ve run across a few–not many, mind you, but a few–interesting things I haven’t mentioned (or else, I haven’t mentioned them a second time) for fear of ruining them for others. I’m sure some other bloggers do the same.
So… no, I’m not sitting on something huge the way TBB was a few months ago. I’m sitting on minor things, but believe it or not everything I’m sitting on has actually been mentioned publicly, either here or on another blog or forum. If you’re not willing or able to spend ridiculous amounts of time digging through forum archives, no worries. There are still lots of well-known, much-discusssed opportunities out there. For the rest of you, I’ll close with George’s advice:
KEEP your eyes open at all times. Think how to maximize points 24/7. You will fill up with gas, get some additional points for it! I have had a Speedway Rewards account for a while, it’s no big deal at all. You can cash out for a large cup of coffee or a hot dog for just 900 points. Being a taxi driver and driving my kids to activities, I must admit, having this card saved me many times by being able to redeem points for a quick snack for free over the years.
Keep networking and develop close friends to bounce ideas off. Friends who will help you when they discover a deal. When you find something do NOT publish it online (unless it is part of your business plan), milk it as long as you can trying to stay under radar (you know, don’t be a hog!). Eventually, ALL DEALS die!
Indeed.
It died because two main media outlets did stories and the last one, npr, claimed we miles people were bad and the general public sides with that notion.
Media killed the coin star
Today it would be picked up by blogs and in short time it would die. Like higc died when that one exploded
Yep, HIGC crossed my mind as I wrote this one.
No you two are smart guys but you are FLAT OUT WRONG on this. Mint only died because the exposure in the press was too embarrassing for the gov/the Mint. It was sustainable in that the number of people willing to play around with coins was limited, or certainly limited in how much they would do. The BIG difference with HIGC or even Vanilla at OD is the 5x multiplier. That is the big strain. The banks simply cannot afford to give out 5x rewards. It’s no secret Chase was very influential on OD pulling Vanillas. Mint was a 1x deal being subsidized by the gov so no real pressure to end it until it started looking too stupid. Today’s deals are better in that they are easier to implement and earn a lot more, but as such are more susceptible to rapid shut down.
I stand by my point – Mint is just over-rated nostalgia.
Like i said though… Media exposed it to those beyond just “our kind” of people and so yes, it became a problem. Once the mainstream saw it –and they misjudge us often thinking everything we do is a scam and MUST be wrong– it had to end because as you said, it was too much pressure for the govt..
There were few or no 5x ccs back then but dont kid yourself, the ccs could handle and enjoy it.
Anyway once the media picks things up that we do, they change or end. And today, many blogs–not all– ARE effectively the media
Its ok to have people know of and do a deal hard. Its good to share and go big and do a lot. But blogs should write more cryptic methods or avoid certain key bits, and people need to stop trying to be famous. If big hitters get recognized by other fters or if blogs want hits to make money thats fine. But all this can and should be done without over exposing or outing any key huge deals. Let people know over time in smaller groups… Be the guy who fosters that and your riches will last longer. Just my thoughts on it
I know some people were doing very well on the mint, but it was not lucrative or accessible enough that everyone was doing it the way OD/VR/BB worked.
I understand your viewpoint on the blogging but you know we don’t agree on it. Neither one of us is “right” we both have valid, reasoned views on it.
I am still pretty certain that Mint would survive the same period again starting today, just the way buying money orders has survived despite the left hand side of PF’s curve’s protestations and squeals when it was blogged about extensively by MMS. Too much hassle for the average Joe.
I see what you mean.
I can tell you that in my opinion this well written blog has never outed a gig or made points so circly and arrowly that good things end. Instead yours remains a well written and informative piece of my regular reading and i do like it
Thanks, I appreciate it!
Something I didn’t mention in my post: I’m surprised Vanilla reloads are still around. When I first read FM’s famous post, I thought, “Wow, this won’t last very long.”
Oh i commented on his recent posting…
The one today? I was talking about the “one card to rule them all” from a while back.
todays
where he talks about walmart etc
Not over-rated at all. Yes, there are better MS techniques today, but at the time it was one of the few games in town. Who wouldn’t love to go back in time and get lifetime AA Platinum status via coins, BankDirect, and churning Citi AA cards?
hmmm you mean back when 25k miles actually got you somewhere?
Yah or way back when Charter One GCs were being mailed out FOR FREE to people with no load fees!
or when AS worked at the USPS.
or when they had Hawaiian and US Air
or
well you know
Some did millions recycling coins.