We had some interesting comments on the Tuesday’s deal-killing post. I’m going to start off with this one from Craig:

I def understand blogging about something leading to masses getting it shut down, but how did everyone else find out about how to do some of these things and that they would in fact work? One’s own ingenuity and testing? Word of mouth from some trusted friends? Combination? Genuinely curious how others come about getting in on these things.

My advice:

1. Read, read, read, read. Become a subject matter expert. This is a great hobby if you’re an obsessive-compulsive info junkie. Some deals are well-known; some are underground. But sometimes there’s helpful information that’s posted in scattered or obscure places. It’s there for the taking for those diligent enough to seek it out. And no, I don’t have anything particular in mind right now, it’s just something I’ve noticed over the years.
2. Learn new stuff on your own. Look for new products, new angles, new things to try.
3. Share with others. Post on forums and help out newbies (and experts, if you can–nobody knows everything) and make a reputation for yourself.
4. Meet people in person. Go to meetups, DOs, whatever and talk to people.

That’s my advice, any of you other platinum elite points-n-miles insiders care to chime in?

Responding to Craig’s question, Expecting To Get Flamed wrote:

This is the question that I have yet to see answered by any of the supposed “responsible” bloggers that don’t kill deals. Why are the masses less entitled to this information than the people on saverocity forums? Did the responsible bloggers all simultaneously “discover” this information? No, 1 or 2 enterprising people discovered something and then shared it on a forum. But if that 1 person deemed it ok to share with 1000, why do those 1000 people have any rights in keeping that deal alive or any expectation that the deal exists for their personal use? What are the arguments here because it sounds a little like sour grapes.

I think he has a point with the sour grapes argument. Does self-interest underlie this debate of what to share and how to share it? Absolutely. Bloggers stand to gain by sharing stuff and killing deals, while many others stand to gain by withholding information and/or persuading bloggers not to share deals .

But at the same time, there’s also an element of common good at play as well. A blogger can kill a deal before anybody gets in on it, or the deal can go on for a while, shared by a reasonable number of people.

It’s pretty clear in that example what the greater good is, but real life isn’t always so easy. It’s not always clear ahead of time what’s going to kill what. I err on the side of caution, but that’s easier for me to do because my blog is set up so that I earn almost nothing from repeat readers. I write posts like this because I’m a weirdo who likes to write posts like this, not because I’ll profit from it. Also, this blog is a side gig for me which gives me more freedom to do whatever the hell I want, like piss off credit card issuers and piss off other credit card issuers.

If you’re blogging full-time in this arena, and your business model involves making money from converting customers and building relationships with your readers… well, you have different incentives and it’s easy for incentives to influence your calculations–and that’s a human problem, not something unique to bloggers. I’ll criticize bloggers for being unethical or for flouting federal law, but getting mad at a blogger for killing a deal is like getting mad at gravity for a plane crash. I’d rather focus on what can be done to ameliorate future problems and get the word out that information has a way of making it to places you wouldn’t expect.

I’ll conclude this post with Noah‘s comment (and by the way, you should be reading his blog, it’s pretty good).

If somebody finds a free milk-producing cow off in a secret field somewhere, they could potentially get free milk for the rest of their lives if nobody found out. They might even decide there’s more milk available than they could ever use themselves, so they decide to share the newly found cow with some of their friends so they can all enjoy the free milk. Maybe one of these people tries to profit by sharing information about this free milk, maybe they just want to brag to others about how they get free milk, or maybe more people just happens to stumble across the same cow on their own. Regardless, eventually a lot of people are showing up to get the free milk.

What everyone involved often fails to realize is that there is somebody who owns the cow and no one is entitled to free milk indefinitely. Maybe the owner(s) allowed people to take the free milk for a while hoping they’d start buying more bottles to carry it all in. Maybe the owner(s) didn’t realize people were using their cow for free milk and assumed everyone was paying. Maybe the owner(s) didn’t even realize they owned the cow until a recent audit explained why they weren’t selling as much milk as expected. For whatever reason, the free milk eventually reaches critical mass and the owner decides to shut it all down. No more free milk for anyone.

Who caused the shut down? Everyone, no one, or maybe somewhere in between. Anyone who used it, talked about it, spread it, or tried to exploit it for profit is potentially to blame. Who knows, maybe the cow was going to die itself even if completely left alone.

Eventually someone will find a new cow in a new field and will be faced with the tough decision of whether or not to tell anyone about it. Will keeping it a secret extend it’s lifetime? Maybe, but then again maybe not.

Sorry for the lengthy metaphor, here’s a cheat sheet:
Cow = MS Method
Milk = Points/Miles/Cash
Owner(s) = Banks,Stores,Processors,Etc.

For those of you who didn’t already know, a few of us locals are getting together in Charlotte to talk miles and points.

Logisitics:

• Saturday, January 23, 1:00 PM.
• I’m still nailing down the location, but I should have that squared away by this weekend. I’ll post it in the relevant thread in the Saverocity forums and send it to those who have contacted me via email.
• EDIT: The location is Hickory Tavern @ Metropolitan, right off 277.
• So far I’m expecting somewhere in the range of 6-12 people depending on how many of the maybes can make it.
• All are welcome! This is an informal gathering–no presentations, just discussion about whatever folks want to talk about.
• If you haven’t contacted me yet (or Bret, your co-host) please do so.
• If the Panthers win this weekend, they’d play next Sunday, not Saturday, so there’s no conflict.
• We’ll hopefully have more get-togethers in the future, so those of you who couldn’t make this one, don’t despair!

 

“It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” — Yogi Berra

Happy new year everybody! I made some predictions last year, so I review ‘llthem below.  I didn’t have a great batting average, but I think I still beat Frequent Miler, who is only able to predict the future 25% of the time.

Devil’s Advocate has some predictions over at Travel Codex. He predicts Ultimate Rewards will continue to slide, which I think is a good prediction, and he thinks Amex will loosen up, which I also agree with. Amex is in a tough spot right now, so they’re going to try to do something.

Grant has an extensive set of predictions over at his blog. This one caught my attention:

4,500 Avios awards are slowly dying and I think we will see 7,500 Avios awards slowly disappear too.

I hadn’t considered that 7,500-point awards might disappear, but… yep, it makes sense. Sigh… earn and burn, folks!

As for my predictions from last year and the results, here you go…

• Citi will introduce another new credit card, but it will be kind of lame. I was way off on Citi! They’ve changed their program for the better.
• Comenity will introduce a major new mass market consumer product. Nope. I still say this is going to happen at some point, so I’ll renew this prediction for 2016.
• A major co-branded card will defect from Chase. By “Chase”, I meant “Amex”.
• Hilton will reanimate the corpse of a Weimar Republic central banker to figure out how to devalue its loyalty program even more swiftly. By “Hilton”, I meant “every airline”.
• Like Fifth Third last year, PNC will finally have a decent offer worth writing about, even after taking into account its terrible rewards program. Nope, PNC still sucks.
• PNC will continue sending me crappy offers. Nailed it!
• CHASE WILL OFFER A 50,000-POINT SIGN-UP BONUS ON THE SOUTHWEST AIRLINES CARD!!!!! Nailed this one too!
• I will keep making fun of Citi for being dumb. Nope! I respect Citi now–they’ve done a good job of changing up their credit card operation. Is Amex the new Citi? We’ll see…
• Amex will sign a relatively minor new co-brand travel partner. Ummm… does Plenti count?
• Great deals will continue their gradual move to more private forums and secretive groups. I would say that good stuff is less likely to be shared publicly than it was a year ago.
• Some new blogger nobody’s heard of will publicize an amazing deal and swiftly kill it. Did this happen? I can’t recall.
• I predict some big bank will get desperate and/or stupid and will gift us with a sweet 5% opportunity. BBVA’s NBA Amex!
• Ingy will keep showing up to argue with George. Get a room, you two!