2016 predictions! Plus a look back at my 2015 predictions

“It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” — Yogi Berra

Happy new year everybody! I made some predictions last year, so I review ‘llthem below.  I didn’t have a great batting average, but I think I still beat Frequent Miler, who is only able to predict the future 25% of the time.

Devil’s Advocate has some predictions over at Travel Codex. He predicts Ultimate Rewards will continue to slide, which I think is a good prediction, and he thinks Amex will loosen up, which I also agree with. Amex is in a tough spot right now, so they’re going to try to do something.

Grant has an extensive set of predictions over at his blog. This one caught my attention:

4,500 Avios awards are slowly dying and I think we will see 7,500 Avios awards slowly disappear too.

I hadn’t considered that 7,500-point awards might disappear, but… yep, it makes sense. Sigh… earn and burn, folks!

As for my predictions from last year and the results, here you go…

• Citi will introduce another new credit card, but it will be kind of lame. I was way off on Citi! They’ve changed their program for the better.
• Comenity will introduce a major new mass market consumer product. Nope. I still say this is going to happen at some point, so I’ll renew this prediction for 2016.
• A major co-branded card will defect from Chase. By “Chase”, I meant “Amex”.
• Hilton will reanimate the corpse of a Weimar Republic central banker to figure out how to devalue its loyalty program even more swiftly. By “Hilton”, I meant “every airline”.
• Like Fifth Third last year, PNC will finally have a decent offer worth writing about, even after taking into account its terrible rewards program. Nope, PNC still sucks.
• PNC will continue sending me crappy offers. Nailed it!
• CHASE WILL OFFER A 50,000-POINT SIGN-UP BONUS ON THE SOUTHWEST AIRLINES CARD!!!!! Nailed this one too!
• I will keep making fun of Citi for being dumb. Nope! I respect Citi now–they’ve done a good job of changing up their credit card operation. Is Amex the new Citi? We’ll see…
• Amex will sign a relatively minor new co-brand travel partner. Ummm… does Plenti count?
• Great deals will continue their gradual move to more private forums and secretive groups. I would say that good stuff is less likely to be shared publicly than it was a year ago.
• Some new blogger nobody’s heard of will publicize an amazing deal and swiftly kill it. Did this happen? I can’t recall.
• I predict some big bank will get desperate and/or stupid and will gift us with a sweet 5% opportunity. BBVA’s NBA Amex!
• Ingy will keep showing up to argue with George. Get a room, you two!