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2017 Predictions, because, why not?

Discussion in 'New Blog Posts' started by tmount, Jan 3, 2017.

  1. tmount

    tmount Administrator


    I’ve never made a post on predictions before, primarily because, I don’t like to think of myself as Nostradamas. But, you know what, it is a new year, so, 2017 Predictions it is!

    2017 Predictions: Reselling

    • Reselling will continue to be full of great opportunities, but clearance arbitrage (my new term!) will get harder. We saw last year how Amazon restricted sellers and made it harder to get ungated.
    • Retail and Online Arbitrage may get harder, but perhaps not as much.
    • Amazon will figure out a new way to combat counterfeiters, but it will hurt more new resellers.
    • Storage Fees will go up. (ok, fine, it’s an easy one!)
    2017 Predictions: Loyalty

    • The Marriott-SPG merger will enter the hangover phase. SPG loyalists will be disappointed. Marriott loyalists might be happier, or just rejoice that others will share their despair.
    • At least one hotel chain will introduce a new higher level redemption category.
    • Kimpton Hotels will become less rewarding, blame IHG.
    • I can’t offer a thought on airlines, because, well, they killed loyalty in 2016 (except for Alaska, but, the writing is on the wall).
    2017 Predictions: Credit Cards

    • Everyone and their brother believes there will be a new Chase Premium card, I believe Barclays is going to get their act together and figure out a way to enter the market.
    • Chase will add 1 airline Ultimate Rewards Partner.
    • Citi Prestige or American Executive will be further devalued. Citi doesn’t seem to have the stomach for the Premium Credit Card game.
    • American Express will enhance their Platinum cards (borrowing this from Doctor of Credit), but, that still wont’ compete with the Chase Sapphire Reserve.
    • Wells Fargo will fade away. Bank of America will continue to grow in prominence, but still fairly low value sign-on bonuses.
    2017 Predictions: Miles and Points

    • Alaska will devalue their award chart. Cathay Pacific for 67.5k miles in First is just too good, it won’t last.
    • Qantas will figure out a way to be less rewarding.
    • Garuda will disappoint many after their 90% off award sale. I suspect the disappointment is more likely to come in service cutbacks, assuming more folks are successful in ticketing.

    Continue reading...
  2. GetawaysRus

    GetawaysRus Level 2 Member

    OK, I'll play along. Here's two easy ones that seem likely:

    1. MS opportunities will come and go in 2017.

    2. The community of MSers will bemoan the loss of MSing avenues when they are shut down. There will be cries that the sky is falling when an MSing avenue is lost.
  3. knick1959

    knick1959 Level 2 Member

    1. The NW Buxx program will be shut down.
  4. ukinny2000

    ukinny2000 Level 2 Member

    More airlines will begin to follow SQ's example (and that of others) and limit F redemption to members of their own FFPs, and the UAE3 / CX will be at the forefront of this

    As more people switch to using bank currencies these programs will face pressure to reduce costs, which will come in the form of reducing the xfer rates. Redemption for paid flights will likely be spared at first as this is part of the value hook in the ads.

    Signup bonuses (particularly in bank currencies) will come under IRS scrutiny and treated as unearned income (almost inevitable alas)

    Of course, hopefully none of this happens :)
  5. Cmonman76

    Cmonman76 Level 2 Member

    Chase will lower the sign up bonus on the CSR. :cool:
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  6. knick1959

    knick1959 Level 2 Member

    Cheater! DoC and TPG have already reported this is the case!! :)
  7. Sephy

    Sephy Level 2 Member

    Simon's Mall 5% cash back will go away
  8. knick1959

    knick1959 Level 2 Member

    Sadly, this has come true way sooner that I was hoping. See the Buxx specific thread with the recent news or check the NW Buxx home page.
  9. Belisarius

    Belisarius Level 2 Member

    I predict we will all travel by jetpack.
  10. scubaduba14

    scubaduba14 Level 2 Member

    I seriously hope that Chase sees the value in the flexibility of the SPG program and more-or-less guts the current Marriot/Ritz program for an even better SPG program rather than the other way around. How this all plays out should be quite interesting and if we're lucky it'll benefit us in the same way as the 3:1 transfer ratio did. Guess I'll just sit back and eat my popcorn while this unfolds...

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