Tagging Miles

Hacking the Mile and Points game is not as easy as it seems

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Map built with gcmap.com

Map built with gcmap.com

Consider for a moment, that you need to get to Cairo from Washington, DC. Here are your options:

  • Your shortest path option is Washington to New York to Cairo (Pink)
  • Slightly longer, is flying Washington to Abu Dhabi to Cairo (Red)
  • Longer still is flying Washington to London to Frankfurt to Doha to Cairo (Gray)
  • The longest and perhaps counter-intuitive, is Washington to Los Angeles to Hong Kong to Singapore to Dubai to Cairo (Navy).

Now before you start calculating the cost per mile, cost per elite qualifying mile, or cost per elite qualifying point, let me stop you (although if you were, I like where your head is at). This is just a metaphor.

For the purposes of the metaphor, lets think of Pink as the easiest (but perhaps not painless), that is, you earn miles from miles flown (in theory, since Delta, United and now British Airways don’t really give mile for mile).

The Red line is slightly harder, lets consider that line applying for credit cards, then meeting minimum spend. Shawn at Miles to Memories notes that for him, the time to meet sign-on bonuses is still worth his time. I do too – although I’m not sure I’d make it sound as simple (probably more my style).

The Gray line is starting to get harder, this is manufactured spending, gift cards, the like. You’re clearly committed to generating miles now. You’re starting to wonder if or how you can hide your Manufactured Spend from your Credit Report, as Doctor of Credit wondered. You’re probably sharing Marathon Man’s feelings on how many “gigs” we lost in 2014.

The Navy line is for the really committed. You’re reselling, you might be stacking that on top of manufactured spending (I know I do), you’re churning credit cards, maybe you’re even flying for the miles (again, totally me). You’re getting the Southwest Companion pass because the shopping portals have nice bonuses. You’re starting to run out of the great cards, so maybe you pick up the Hawaiian card like I did a few churns ago, and are still trying to figure out how to use the 35k or more Hawaiian miles (I still haven’t, but I’m thinking Hilton).

Wrapping Up

The point really of this post is to say that (1) manufactured spending is not easy, (2) there are plenty of paths to tons of miles available. Suffice it to say though, you really have to choose the path that works best for you. No option is without a time commitment, either.

 

Is Mileage Running dead or just out of favor?

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I happened to see a tweet on a (for me) busy Friday afternoon that struck me.

 

George tweeted it, but its actually to a New York Times article by Josh Barro. The cliff notes for the article are this – Mileage Runs don’t make sense for many, Mileage Runners do so for status or redeemable mileage, Mileage Runners are not profitable for airlines, airlines have instituted revenue based programs specifically for that, and American is the last bastion for Mileage Runners. Ok, that probably over simplifies the article, but, let me expand.

Now I’ll be the first to admit, I don’t read the New York Times regularly, nor do I know who Josh Barro is, but, reading through the article, I question one core assertion (I could probably go further, but I feel strongest about this one).

But mileage running has never made much economic sense for the airlines.

I’m not sure this is true. Maybe I’m going too far back, but referencing Thomas Petzinger, Jr’s Hard Landing,  to paraphrase: the First Rule of Airline Economics: Once the flight is paid for, any additional payload is pure gravy. Now, granted, right now with load factors so high, those last fares are higher, which Barro correctly notes (referencing Gary Leff), that mileage run fares are not as low as they used to be. Accepting that, I would submit to you, that while this may be true, industries, like economies are cyclical, with highs and lows. 10+ years ago, airlines were really looking for that “pure gravy,” and logically, this could, and likely will happen again.

A word about Load Factors

Load factors, at the very basic level, are how full planes are. US Airlines have spent the past few years reducing capacity, working toward more efficient aircraft, and in general, attempting to “right-size” capacity to increase load factors. Now, I’m not an expert is load factors (or really anything, but that’s beside the point), but I did reach out to some experts, as well as pull some numbers from the US Department of Transportations’ Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS).

First, the experts – which I reached out to via Twitter. @AirlineFlyer and @WanderngAramean

and

Given that, plus some other datapoints, Seth went on to note that Jetblue was doing 88% last month, but its not clear if that is sustainable, especially incorporating irregular operations (IRROPS).

Now for the data from BTS:

Airline Load Factors 2002-2013, courtesy of the Department of Transportation, Bureau of Transportation Statistics.

Airline Load Factors 2002-2013, courtesy of the Department of Transportation, Bureau of Transportation Statistics.

I would submit to you, based on that blue line, that domestic airlines are encountering resistance at or about 83%.

What I’m getting at

Ok – so we see that Airlines are starting to meet a resistance point around 83%, and we see airlines are adding aircraft, in some cases, going for “right-sized” aircraft, Wandering Aramean calls this Airlines getting better at controlling capacity. I say “right-sized” because not a single US Airline has bought the A380, but many are buying the 787, the 777, and in the smaller arena, the newer 737s, and even regionals are getting a bit of an upgrade with CR700’s and CR900’s.

That said, I would argue that if we see another downturn (and I’m just trying to be pragmatic here), it is entirely possible that we will see promotions that will be oriented toward mileage runners. Yes, American is the last bastion of mileage running now, with Delta, United, and Southwest moving toward revenue-based frequent flier programs, with Delta being the worse with respect to revenue based redeemable mileage earning, but, things could change.

So my point is, mileage running has worked in the past, and for some it continues to work. I believe that mileage running will continue, albeit at slightly higher cost per mile (cpm).

What do you think? Is Mileage Running dead?

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