Immigration has emerged somewhat abruptly and I gather somewhat unexpectedly as a major political issue in 2018 due to the president's decision to end the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program, which offered work permits and reprieve from deportation to immigrants who entered the United States without authorization as children (this group of immigrants is sometimes … [Read more...] about Five questions about immigration
rant
Why China doesn’t scare me
I've recently read and listened to a number of interviews and stories about Harvard scholar Graham Alison's recent book "Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap?" The book catalogues China's present and future rise as a great economic and military power, and describes 16 similar cases in history, with some resulting in war, and others peace. As the … [Read more...] about Why China doesn’t scare me
Survivorship bias everywhere
Survivorship bias is one of those rare ideas that is at once instantly accessible and incredibly powerful. The classic explanation of survivorship bias is when a mutual fund company advertises the 5-year or 10-year returns of the funds it offers, without reporting the 5-year or 10-year returns of all the funds that didn't survive 5 or 10 years, since they were closed for … [Read more...] about Survivorship bias everywhere
Come to terms now with the fact that you will feel poorer in old age
Today we are enjoying the fruits of a politics founded, at its core, on the principle that the wealthiest, most powerful people in our society feel ill-used by the political system they exert an almost unfathomable amount of control over. They feel that someone, somewhere, must be pulling one over on them, whether it's immigrants, ethnic minorities, the poor, public school … [Read more...] about Come to terms now with the fact that you will feel poorer in old age
The problem of class projection
A few different situations have recently set me to ruminating on a curious problem that I think doesn't receive the attention it deserves. My working name for this problem is "class projection," although I'm sure the academics have already come up with a much better, or at least longer, term for it. The problem is that when people imagine how other people think, they project … [Read more...] about The problem of class projection