I was having a conversation with a young investor yesterday when I mentioned in passing my view that the latest clue that the market cycle is ending is when an enormous corporate tax cut became not a possibility, but a certainty, and share prices didn't budge. In other words, the market had already fully priced in the special dividends and share buybacks we'll see over the next … [Read more...] about The only investment you’ll ever make that matters
investing
The effect of estate tax repeal on the 529 scam
One of the first posts I wrote here was about the 529 scam. I explained that 529 plans are a way for wealthy individuals to permanently shield an almost unlimited amount of assets from taxation, and that the scam was made sustainable by the very large number of middle class people saving a very small amount of money who are absolutely convinced that 529 plans are a way to save … [Read more...] about The effect of estate tax repeal on the 529 scam
The real reason arbitrage opportunities last so long
Every once in a while you come across a seemingly insignificant coincidence that gives a different perspective on a question you thought you understood the answer to. I had one of those moments the other day when, for the second time in the course of a few weeks, a popular economics Twitter account dismissed my suggestion that he open a high-interest checking by saying "That … [Read more...] about The real reason arbitrage opportunities last so long
What is a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage?
The title of this post may sound like a rhetorical question, but I assure you I don't mean it that way. It's a question I've been pondering for a while as I come across weird datapoints from the history of home financing around the world. A 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is maybe best defined by what it is not: it's not a one-year floating-rate mortgage. What would a one-year … [Read more...] about What is a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage?
What’s the optimal amount of home-country (currency) bias?
I have the view, which I consider fairly obvious but not always clearly articulated, that virtually all low-enough-cost, adequately-diversified investments will yield positive nominal returns over the appropriate investment time horizon. If you own yen-denominated Japanese bonds, you should expect to receive a positive yen-denominated return over the term structure of the … [Read more...] about What’s the optimal amount of home-country (currency) bias?