I was having a conversation with a young investor yesterday when I mentioned in passing my view that the latest clue that the market cycle is ending is when an enormous corporate tax cut became not a possibility, but a certainty, and share prices didn't budge. In other words, the market had already fully priced in the special dividends and share buybacks we'll see over the next … [Read more...] about The only investment you’ll ever make that matters
Archives for December 2017
Congress wants you to sell stocks to pay your taxes
The tax bill Republicans are planning to pass in the next day or two is not a good bill, and hopefully it will not pass. The fact that people have correctly identified it as a bad bill, however, has given rise to quite a bit of sloppy thinking about why, exactly the bill is so bad. The effect of replacing the personal exemption with a larger child tax credit is genuinely … [Read more...] about Congress wants you to sell stocks to pay your taxes
It’s not too late to enroll in health insurance
As an independent businessperson, I've been enrolled in health insurance through the Affordable Care Act practically since it went into effect. Due to an unprecedented buildup of bile, the current administration radically shortened the open enrollment period for plans offered on the ACA marketplaces, which will lead to somewhat fewer people enrolling in time for their coverage … [Read more...] about It’s not too late to enroll in health insurance
Survivorship bias everywhere
Survivorship bias is one of those rare ideas that is at once instantly accessible and incredibly powerful. The classic explanation of survivorship bias is when a mutual fund company advertises the 5-year or 10-year returns of the funds it offers, without reporting the 5-year or 10-year returns of all the funds that didn't survive 5 or 10 years, since they were closed for … [Read more...] about Survivorship bias everywhere
The effect of estate tax repeal on the 529 scam
One of the first posts I wrote here was about the 529 scam. I explained that 529 plans are a way for wealthy individuals to permanently shield an almost unlimited amount of assets from taxation, and that the scam was made sustainable by the very large number of middle class people saving a very small amount of money who are absolutely convinced that 529 plans are a way to save … [Read more...] about The effect of estate tax repeal on the 529 scam