What is the value of a Hard Pull?

[Matt]

AKA - is it 'worth it?'

Something I have wondered for a while is why some people would say they need X value from a pull (a rather high X too...) but why is that? Assuming for the purpose of discussion that you don't have any other major loans (mortgage application etc) and this is just a case of credit card applications, why does value matter?

Some points that strike me:
Credit card applications are a factor in credit score. However, if we are in a land of 'only CC apps' then this only impacts what might be opportunity costs. IE If you apply for a shoddy offer today, there might come a time when you are declined for a better offer.

It's a solid theory, but I wonder how much this actually impacts people, vs the fear of the possibility alone?

For those that apply for so many cards that each one really 'matters' how does B* change that dynamic?

I know when I see a card with a stupid offer, like on Amazon where they say I could get $30 off my order if I apply for a card I wouldn't touch it.. but that is because I have a 'benchmark' of about $400 or more for a nice CC offer. That said, just because there is a benchmark, does it mean we shouldn't accept $30?

I'd like to hear thoughts on this, and phase two of this thought is that I'd like to build out a list of CC from all banks and tier them by bonus. This would allow us to know what cards to get in what order before we become so washed out that all we can get is a TJ Maxx secured card.

 

[flyerboi69]

Yes, when deciding whether or not to apply for a particular credit card, in a completely rational world we would need to take into account all the opportunity costs of the application / credit hit itself, the time it will take to MS / reach the minimum spending, etc.

Another thing that I strongly take into consideration is if the current sign up offer for a card is at or near it's peak / if it might no longer be available at all in the near future (e.g. the US Airways card from Barclays is very attractive to me right now because of it's imminent scarcity. In this case it won't be available at all to new customers in just a few months).

You might also want to think about the probability of getting approved for a certain card. Some are always more difficult than others to obtain, and sometimes others might be less easily available to a particular person just because they've recently gotten new cards for a certain bank. Your odds of being approved, or well, your best guess, obviously impacts the expected value of a cards sign on bonus.

I've seen a very useful spreadsheet on Google docs somewhere that has a huge list of cards and their current bonuses / requirements. It also lists the all-time highest bonus, which I find very useful.

 

[plane2port]

Maybe it would be helpful if we had data from those who have been denied based on "too many inquiries." Which CC, how many pulls in the last 6 mo, year, 2 years.

So we are going to talk about B* now? Fun!

 

[Daniel]

I agree with @plane2port in that the most useful data point is probably denials based on too many inquiries, since everything else is just speculation.

So to kick this off, here's mine: I actually missed out on a huge AAdvantage Gold bonus (50k/1.5k spend + 10k bonus after 5k spend) because I had too many recent inquiries.

Re: @Matt's suggestion. I'm not sure if this is what you had in mind, but in addition to tiering bonuses across cards, it might be useful to have multiple items for each card (i.e. max ever, max in the last year, general public offer), since the math can often change if you 'need' points immediately for a redemption.

 

[Daniel]

I've seen a very useful spreadsheet on Google docs somewhere that has a huge list of cards and their current bonuses / requirements. It also lists the all-time highest bonus, which I find very useful.

If you can dig it up, care to share? I know doctorofcredit keeps a similar page, but it's not always up-to-date, and it's definitely not all-inclusive.

 

[FlyingExplorer]

One of the problems is that it is difficult to predict after how many hard pulls you will get denied. Getting denied based on too many inquiries is definitely a pain.

B* should change that for many issuers, but I don't know how do it lol. I saw Matt's thread on the matter but it was quite non-specific I found. If anyone is willing to help me get started with B*, I'd appreciate a PM

 

[Matt]

I just added a Wiki page with about 1500 credit cards on it. [WIKI="Credit Card Master List Alphabetical"]CC Master List[/WIKI] It's going to take a while to work through. The idea is to use this just for an idea of 'scope' and build out further data points regarding the value of signup bonuses etc in the future. I included a Google Docs version of this.

Basically, not a lot of use right now, but could be valuable with some effort.

 

[swazzie]

I just added a Wiki page with about 1500 credit cards on it. [WIKI="Credit Card Master List Alphabetical"]CC Master List[/WIKI] It's going to take a while to work through. The idea is to use this just for an idea of 'scope' and build out further data points regarding the value of signup bonuses etc in the future. I included a Google Docs version of this.

Basically, not a lot of use right now, but could be valuable with some effort.

Matt the magician! How did you come up with that so quickly?

 

[Matt]

Matt the magician! How did you come up with that so quickly?

I ripped it off a site pumping cards, stripped out as many duplicates (erroneous ones) as I could and cleaned as many dead cards as I spotted on the way.

I think it has more value via issuer so you could manage an AOR better, but that requires some heavy lifting (hence me saving it in spreadsheet form too)

 

[Domat]

Considering that you can B* Eq and TU then for those the value is what 75-150 for multiple pulls. Ex is obviously more precious as only time can take them away.

Then again for some issueres like Barclay just getting cards is enough to deny you. I got denied from barclay for opening to many accounts the last year. Mostly Citi AA. Even though I had very few pulls on TU.

 

[Jack]

Considering that you can B* Eq and TU then for those the value is what 75-150 for multiple pulls. Ex is obviously more precious as only time can take them away.

I agree. The inquires on TU and EQ can be bumped if I really want to. As a result, I only think of the "new inquiry cost" for EX pulls that will stay for two years. Some banks care about inquires and some don't. I've been approved on EX pulls from Citi bank, AMEX, and Chase with over 20 inquires showing on EX.

When I make the application decision, I look at it more as "What is the cost of having a new account show up on my credit report worth?" This worth will be different for different people because an older thicker credit file can handle new accounts better than a newer thinner file.

New accounts can sometimes stop you from getting additional accounts. I've had once or twice when I got a bunch of new cards and then a month or two later a really great credit card bonus offer came out and I was rejected for the great deal because I had four or five very recent "okay bonus" cards showing on my credit report. My current approach is to not do the APP-O-RAMAs but to hold back and only apply for cards that have an especially good bonus or a bonus that really suits my plans for an upcoming trip. But I am points and miles rich right now so that also affects my thinking.

 

[InstinctX]

I opened a local CU account... to my surprise, and without telling me (I was in the branch because I failed their verification questions trying to open an account online), they ran a hard inquiry. Having too many inquiries within 6 month period definitely was a factor when I tried to apply for Citi's AA (when I called the recon line, the rep told me it was a system decline & they couldn't override it...)

 

[flyerboi69]

One of the problems is that it is difficult to predict after how many hard pulls you will get denied. Getting denied based on too many inquiries is definitely a pain.

B* should change that for many issuers, but I don't know how do it lol. I saw Matt's thread on the matter but it was quite non-specific I found. If anyone is willing to help me get started with B*, I'd appreciate a PM

I couldn't find the thread you're referring to on my phone. Is it somewhere in Level 2 ? I don't have access to that yet. There should be a few useful threads on creditboards and FT.

 

[Matt]

I couldn't find the thread you're referring to on my phone. Is it somewhere in Level 2 ? I don't have access to that yet. There should be a few useful threads on creditboards and FT.

Try now, it's in the resources tab.

 

[flyerboi69]

Try now, it's in the resources tab.

Thanks!