Last night I picked up two copies of the Ritz Carlton with 140K bonus, for $395 a pop, and I was pretty excited about it too.
Today Josh over at the Forum calls me out via message, asking me what my angle is because as far as he figures it, that wasn’t a smart move. So what to do? I’m going to try and write an egoless post (tough when you are this good looking). The goal, to see if I’m an idiot or an expert.
First, the offer
I highlighted what convinced me to get the card. For a fee of $395 I’m buying 140,000 Marriott points and $300 of ‘Airline Incidentals’. Let’s pretend that I can turn those into more generic airline credits using witchcraft [Level 2 Forum Thread]. And I have got myself 140K pts, $300 towards American Airlines for $395. I really don’t care what Gold status is or the other stuff (yet).
If we work this out like an equation, pretend I buy $300 of AA Giftcards for $300 and then buy 140K for Marriott points for $95, is it a deal? Maybe…. but in fairness, I’d be an idiot to buy $300 of AA Gift cards with real money, there must be a discount value for swapping out real American Dollars for travel coupons. And for someone who travels like me, a steep one. Let’s say, $300 in your AA funny money is worth $200 in the green stuff. Now i’m up to $195 for 140k… crikey!
Break-point
We have to pause here a moment and realize that I can generate 140K miles for a lot less than $195, in fact, I could do it for free. But at some point opportunity cost would kick in for me, since I like to keep my ‘miles generating activities’ to a minimum. As such 140K at 1:1 would be an opportunity to earn $280 in 2% money. For those without such time limits then I’d say do both!
However, since I have my limits, the question then becomes, is 140K a good use of $195?
Burning and Earning
The burning side of the equation is key here. I’ve wanted to get Marriott points for the longest time because they have that pretty neat ‘package deal’ option where you trade in Marriott points and they give you back Airline Miles and 7 nights in a hotel. Here’s the link: Travel Packages
So, by picking up two of these cards I am in the 280K mark, which would allow me to transfer for 100,000 SouthWest Rapid Rewards + 7 nights in a Cat 6 Marriott. I’m tempted by this because I would like to finally get a Companion Pass, the only thing holding me back is that I haven’t stayed 7 nights in the same hotel other than for business since… well. forever. I did read on Flyertalk that you could split the nights up, so it could be neat to stay 3 nights, pop off somewhere and return for the final 4. Sadly all must be used in the same ‘trip’. Psst….
Am I just trying to justify value here?
If i’m honest, that conversion is neat, but I feel like I am just trying to justify the expense. The real reason that I wanted Marriott points was for my upcoming trip to Cancun. The Ritz Carlton there isn’t cheap, Hotels.com lists it at $329, and it looks pretty nice to me. Tripadvisor rates it as #11 in area. The Ritz is a Tier 3 property, so I could stay there for 50,000 points per night.
I guess then there’s the decision… do we spend 150K for 3 nights, or make a week of it, stay 7 and spend 350K, getting 50K SouthWest points for free?
Its very subjective
I am still out $790 here. But the last time I checked I couldn’t find an award seat back from CUN, so we might need some more AA spending money… which could then change the value again to:
- A week in a nice Ritz Carlton, 50K SouthWest Points, Return Airfare ($236 PP) $128 left over in AA credit, some AA miles earned from the flight… for $790? Of course if I can find an award seat on SouthWest that could make it even better (value wise).
There are a LOT of variables here. In my case, I have two one way tickets to CUN and an open mind… I also like the look of that Ritz Carlton. I could stay elsewhere, but it looks neat. I’d like a SW pass and could only find a 50K personal offer yesterday, so I took one of those too.
The question on if I am an idiot or an expert, I’ll leave that to you. I think I fit somewhere in between and lean more towards idiot. But as time has progressed I have moved away from ‘perfect optimization’ and onto ‘that feels like a deal’. I think the latter is very hard to quantify with other people, since we all have different amount of cash in the bank, and times on our hands. And perhaps more importantly, some people have slept more than 5 hrs this week… my take on the points/miles game is simply, if it feels like I got a deal, its good enough for me.
Idiot or expert is pretty much all in the eyes of the beholder. The only part that has me smacking my forehead is that you’d travel to the lovely Yucatan peninsula, and then stay in Cancun, when there are so many drop dead beautiful places to stay, no more than an hour down the coast.
Its not my first rodeo 🙂 I’ve been to Mexico at least 300 times, probably more. After that, Cancun is allowed… the reason it works now is convenient baby travel and Isla Mujeres just around the corner.
OK, then. (Minnesotan for “you win”. )
Hi Matt,
I’m unable to view the ‘witchcraft [Level 2 Forum Thread]’ link that you mentioned: http://saverocity.com/forum/threads/ritz-carlton-card-fee-reimbursements-what-works-doesnt.1780/
How do I gain access to that thread?
Thanks,
Joe
Hi Joe,
Level 2 is available only to approved members. We are pretty open, but we need to know that anyone who comes in there has a basic ability not to ‘screw the pooch’ since there are a lot of good deals being discussed. With that in mind there is a ‘bootcamp’ area to review prior to viewing it.
Will explain more in a post at some point soon, but you can just check out the bootcamp here and start a dialogue with me.
http://saverocity.com/forum/threads/welcome-to-bootcamp.80477/
Thanks for the info. I sent you a message on the forum.
Funny. We just picked up two yesterday. I had to call in for recon. My wife was approved instantly. I plan to get SW CP as well. My CP expired last month and I can’t wait to get it again. I think this deal is a win. Two cards can get you up to $1,200 in airlines GCs since you will be using the benefits this year and beginning of next year. Then 100,000 SW points with CP will effectively bump the points to 200,000 or 220,000 points. If you value SW points at 1c/point, you still get $2200 in SW credit. So you get at least $3400 in air fares + 7 nights for $790. That’s tough to beat! We haven’t stayed 7 nights at one hotel either. I think it would be fun to try it. I love beaches.
Yeah good point – see I knew my gut was right about these cards, and you just proved it. I do this with Amex regarding the calendar (which reminds me…!)
Cheers!
Wondering if you applied to 2 ritz 140k chase cards under the same SSN / name , or two different names?
Me and the Wife, not sure she knows yet. Will combine points if we go the Travel Package route
I’d argue you are buying $600 of airline travel credit since it is calendar year based. Yes you have to wait a year for that benefit and you would have a short timeframe in January 2016 to use up the credit but it seems doable before paying the annual fee again (or even paying the annual fee and then cancelling a month later to get the it refunded).
You’d argue it is even better than I thought here? Awesome 🙂 That’s why you’re an expert, great point.
I’ve actually been waiting on this application for that reason. Wanted to give myself a bit more breathing room to get the second calendar year of travel credit.
sounds like a great deal, you got $800 to spend and you get a lot of value out of it. You may as well get 2 cards at 70,000 from Mariott and 2 biz at 70,000, for grand total of 560,000 points.
As for CP, why not just do SW cards and get it that way? I think Mariott sweet spot is 5 award nights for cost of 4, and with 560,000 points you will have a lif of 5 night stays.
Enjoy Mexico and enjoy travel with your young one.
Cheers,
PedroNY
Nice! Yeah I really need to wrap my head around Marriott. I’m very polar with my thought process, if I’m not ready to figure it out, I don’t even consider it. Time to savvy up.
i don’t really get the point of companion pass out of nyc, they don’t have many direct flights from nyc and most are not at great times. what cities do you plan on using it for?
You know what, I haven’t a clue. I still think its value though 🙂
I’ll have a looksie and let you know.
This reminds me of the word “Satisficing”. It’s not my natural way of operating, but it basically means you search until you find a solution that meets the criteria you have. This is as opposed to optimal decision making, where you keep searching until you find the very best solution. I tend to operate the optimal decision making way, but what that often means is that I search and search and am never satisfied that I’ve found the best solution, and then the deal is over or I run out of time, etc.
I think satisficing is what you’ve done with your ritz-carlton deal. You looked into it enough to know that it was “good enough” and you went for it. (although when you remember that the airline credit is per calendar year, it really is a slam dunk) I should make it one of my new year’s resolutions to do more of that.
(citation: I used wikipedia to remind myself of the definition of satisficing and optimal decision making)
I vote for expert. What’s right for one person isn’t necessarily right for another, and the most important thing is that you have expertise related to you and your family (and your time, travel desires, finances, etc). There is no real right or wrong here. And by just biting the bullet, pulling the trigger, yadda yadda, you will have a (hopefully) wonderful travel experience with your family. And (hopefully) will get some sleep sometime in 2015. I would be getting this card myself if we weren’t gearing up for a refinance.