My Own Stock Investment/Trading Blog

What The Heck?

Master Blaster
I have started a personal blog focusing on providing stock investment/trading ideas that you could use in your trading/investment - http://breakout-stocks.com. You are most welcome to visit my blog and write to me at breakoutstocks2017@gmail.com. I have been trading for almost 15 years and have gone through various trading methodologies, but felt that trading based on price action with breakout stocks strategy focusing on swing trading yields good results, provided one follows proper risk management. Please note that any positions you may take involves risk of losing money and thus you got to keep that in mind if you decide to take my calls. Go through the "Disclaimer" portion clearly. Good luck and let me know if you have any questions, through mail and i will be happy to answer you. Since i work full time, i might take some time to respond but i would definitely try and respond at the earliest. Good luck if you decide to use my site. I plan to update the site regularly - at least once a week if not more.

@Matt - please feel free to delete this post if you think it is not relevant or does not meet the rules of the forum.
 

Craig

Level 2 Member
I feel like these type of messages/posts are rarely informative unless relative to an index. My recommendation would be to include either DJIA or the S&P500 results over the same period for comparison.
 

What The Heck?

Master Blaster
I feel like these type of messages/posts are rarely informative unless relative to an index. My recommendation would be to include either DJIA or the S&P500 results over the same period for comparison.
What kind of information are you looking for specifically? If you are looking only for a comparison with an index, i can get it added to the excel sheet. Otherwise, I think i have provided all the information in the charts. Do write to me if you have any specific questions.
 

Matt

Administrator
Staff member
What kind of information are you looking for specifically? If you are looking only for a comparison with an index, i can get it added to the excel sheet. Otherwise, I think i have provided all the information in the charts. Do write to me if you have any specific questions.
Alpha, Beta, Sharpe, Sortino per position would be helpful.
 

What The Heck?

Master Blaster
Alpha, Beta, Sharpe, Sortino per position would be helpful.
Well, spoken like a true CFA. However, I am not sure how many people would benefit from those data just by reading those. I am not developing this into a fund based portfolio yet. Just using my technical analysis skills to come up with picks that tend to outperform the market. Also i am not sure how much time i can devote to this considering my full time day job. However, i will keep those in mind and try to add those as i keep enhancing this further. Thanks for the feedback, Matt. Need to revisit my CFA books or get a good software, i guess :)
 

Craig

Level 2 Member
What kind of information are you looking for specifically? If you are looking only for a comparison with an index, i can get it added to the excel sheet. Otherwise, I think i have provided all the information in the charts. Do write to me if you have any specific questions.
Simply an easy comparison that shows you are 'beating the market' and by how much.

IMO, ROI in active investing should be relative to what I can make if I use 'technical analysis skill to... outperform the market' vs. what I can make in a 3-fund or passive portfolio.
 
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Matt

Administrator
Staff member
Just using my technical analysis skills to come up with picks that tend to outperform the market.
Perhaps you could elaborate on what metrics you use in your technical analysis and the processes that highlight a position for inclusion or exclusion?
 

What The Heck?

Master Blaster
Perhaps you could elaborate on what metrics you use in your technical analysis and the processes that highlight a position for inclusion or exclusion?
My stock picking strategy is based on "breakout strategy" meaning identifying stocks that are breaking out from the current price pattern. Though I would like to keep my exact stock picking technique proprietary, I can tell that I pick stocks that are making new highs for a long position and new lows for a short position. I take about 10 stocks every week and analyze them (can do more but i just started and this is not my full time job) to see if they meet my criteria of trading longevity, established stock price movement, liquidity, current market price and potential for going up or down. Once i am convinced on these, I then take up the weekly charts for analysis. Why weekly - I am into swing trading and would like to capture the swing early enough and determine my exit strategy instead of waiting for breakout on monthly charts. I then come up with a good stop loss if i take a trade at the CMP. Once the risk is defined in SL (typically not more than 5-10%), I then go about determining the possible targets based on the weekly supports and resistance levels. I also try to use trend line supports wherever feasible, based on how the chart has progressed over time. In my technical analysis trading experience, almost always stocks tend to lean towards supports and resistance levels. All i use are free tools that are freely available in the internet.

For set of rules of trading, please refer to http://breakout-stocks.com/rules-of-investing
For some more details on my strategy, please refer to http://breakout-stocks.com/how-to-trade-my-picks

Let me know if my explanation was sufficient enough or if you need any more details.
 
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What The Heck?

Master Blaster
Simply an easy comparison that shows you are 'beating the market' and by how much.

IMO, ROI in active investing should be relative to what I can make if I use 'technical analysis skill to... outperform the market' vs. what I can make in a 3-fund or passive portfolio.
I think you can compare returns of my picks as against investment in an index fund based on the S&P returns in my excel sheet above. I will try to make it better over time. Thinking how to go about it. Will keep posted on updates here.
 

What The Heck?

Master Blaster
RULES of Trading/Investing:

1. Invest/Trade with ADEQUATE funding. You need to have at least $5000-$10000 to benefit from breakout strategy trading.
2. Do not trade based on news or any kind of prejudices or just because you like the name of the company. Trade based on what the charts say. Charts clearly depict the price action based on the collective moods of the participants. EVERYTHING ELSE IS NOISE. Just ignore those if you really want to succeed.
3. Remember you are trading/investing your capital. Stock is only a medium to achieve your investment objective of growing your capital. There is no use to be emotionally attached to ANY stock.
4. DO NOT treat the stock market as a Casino. If you want to gamble, please go to a casino and gamble as much as you want. You are dealing with your investment money. Be Smart and careful.
5. Have a clearly defined ENTRY/EXIT Criteria even before you take a trade. Know when to enter and when to exit a stock. This rule alone can save you tons of money.
6. Position your trades properly. If your capital is $10000, do not invest all the money in one trade that you think will get you 100% returns in a day. Proper positioning involves investing NOT MORE THAN 5% of your capital in any trade that you take.
7. BOOK REGULAR PROFITS based on your system. For example, I follow a rule of closing 80% of my positions at 20% profits and allow the rest to stay in the market with Stop Loss at entry price. You could have your own rule like keep increasing your stop loss as the price of the stock moves or booking 1/3rd profits at each target price or something similar.
8. BE PREPARED to accept losses in your trades. It is just impossible to have 100% success rate. Ultimately what matters is that you try to position yourselves to increase the success rate.
9. REMEMBER that you are up against some of the best minds with phenomenal backing of money, research, tools to ensure that you lose and they gain. You do not MOVE the market. Only Institutions/Hedge funds flush with money can move the price of a stock. What we as retail investor can do is get in and get out at the right time as per our system.
10. TRADE YOUR SYSTEM. Do not deviate from what your system says at any point of time. DISCIPLINE IS THE KEY. Everything else is secondary. Whatever you do, do not overdo or take it to your heart. Just trade like a professional and you are bound to succeed.
http://breakout-stocks.com
 

Someone

Level 2 Member
Re the system, sounds like SMA/RSI analysis

I for one appreciate what you're doing @What The Heck?

Indexing gets a lot of play around here and is treated as gospel by some, so don't feel discouraged if you get challenged a bit. Likewise don't get discouraged if you don't find a huge audience here.
 

Derptrader

New Member
I'm a fellow trader as well @What The Heck? and thanks for putting this up. Agree with @Someone that index is the most played here. I'm one of the few that aren't in that camp, so I'm with you :)

Also, great rules and your methodology makes sense. As you update this spreadsheet with closed trades, some helpful metrics would the the Risk to Reward ratio for each trade measured in R. E.g. risking $4 on a stock entered at $32, and closing the trade at $36 would be 1R, $40 would be 2R etc. Having a win/loss ratio combined with the risk measurement helps to show how well you're doing personally. These would be the metrics that I would add to the ones listed above compared to indices such as the S&P or NASDAQ.

This inspires me to dust off the website I was in the process of setting up and posting what I have learned and some trade results. It's mostly going to be a journal of what I've learned so stay tuned. Hopefully we can learn from each other.
 

What The Heck?

Master Blaster
I'm a fellow trader as well @What The Heck? and thanks for putting this up. Agree with @Someone that index is the most played here. I'm one of the few that aren't in that camp, so I'm with you :)

Also, great rules and your methodology makes sense. As you update this spreadsheet with closed trades, some helpful metrics would the the Risk to Reward ratio for each trade measured in R. E.g. risking $4 on a stock entered at $32, and closing the trade at $36 would be 1R, $40 would be 2R etc. Having a win/loss ratio combined with the risk measurement helps to show how well you're doing personally. These would be the metrics that I would add to the ones listed above compared to indices such as the S&P or NASDAQ.

This inspires me to dust off the website I was in the process of setting up and posting what I have learned and some trade results. It's mostly going to be a journal of what I've learned so stay tuned. Hopefully we can learn from each other.
Thanks for taking time to provide valuable feedback. Points noted. I agree many people are averse to individual stock picking and prefer index based investing to control risk and being passive. I guess this is due to fear or greed or lack of disciplined approach to trading or just no time to stay active. Well, I fully understand them. I don't day trade but looking forward to your trade journal. Good luck.
 

Tom Juhn

Level 2 Member
My stock picking strategy is based on "breakout strategy" meaning identifying stocks that are breaking out from the current price pattern. Though I would like to keep my exact stock picking technique proprietary, I can tell that I pick stocks that are making new highs for a long position and new lows for a short position. I take about 10 stocks every week and analyze them (can do more but i just started and this is not my full time job) to see if they meet my criteria of trading longevity, established stock price movement, liquidity, current market price and potential for going up or down. Once i am convinced on these, I then take up the weekly charts for analysis. Why weekly - I am into swing trading and would like to capture the swing early enough and determine my exit strategy instead of waiting for breakout on monthly charts. I then come up with a good stop loss if i take a trade at the CMP. Once the risk is defined in SL (typically not more than 5-10%), I then go about determining the possible targets based on the weekly supports and resistance levels. I also try to use trend line supports wherever feasible, based on how the chart has progressed over time. In my technical analysis trading experience, almost always stocks tend to lean towards supports and resistance levels. All i use are free tools that are freely available in the internet.

For set of rules of trading, please refer to http://breakout-stocks.com/rules-of-investing
For some more details on my strategy, please refer to http://breakout-stocks.com/how-to-trade-my-picks

Let me know if my explanation was sufficient enough or if you need any more details.
I don't understand. You stated you like to buy stock making new highs but you recommend CZR. It is not making new highs.
 

What The Heck?

Master Blaster
I don't understand. You stated you like to buy stock making new highs but you recommend CZR. It is not making new highs.
New "highs" need not necessarily mean new "all time highs". Please check the chart I have posted in my site for CZR. Thanks for asking.
 

What The Heck?

Master Blaster
...so have you consistently outperformed the S&P 500 over those 15 years? How about on an annualized risk adjusted basis?
No I haven't. I have lost in the past trying different methods but I have had good success with breakout methodology which I have been researching and trading for the past 1-2 years. That is one of the reason why I am sharing this for free so that others don't lose. The rules I have come up with requires disciplined trading and I am all for disciplined trading with a nice system that has a well defined entry/exit criteria and position sizing. I believe my system has everything that is required for a trader cum investor, in place. You are welcome to paper trade and check for yourself.
 

What The Heck?

Master Blaster
I will post a video about price action trading, reading charts, how to trade etc this weekend in my website. It should be pretty useful for those interested.
 

What The Heck?

Master Blaster
Did you even bother to read my answer fully? I didn't say "this" method did not beat the index. Do you know how many years it takes to even come up with a methodology like this? Did you even try to do paper trades? It is easy to judge and criticize people based on prejudices. 2 things I have learned from this - never be honest and never offer anything for free. I have a full time job that takes care of me. If you want to benefit from my methodology, you first need to get rid of your prejudices. Good luck sir. Better stick to collecting miles.
 

Matt

Administrator
Staff member
Relax guys.

Investing like this is almost a religion, lots of opposing views. I'm not necessarily into this method either, but I'm open to learning and seeing what's up.
 

What The Heck?

Master Blaster
Relax guys.

Investing like this is almost a religion, lots of opposing views. I'm not necessarily into this method either, but I'm open to learning and seeing what's up.
I am absolutely fine with "constructive" criticism without any prejudice, Matt. You very well know me. I guess people should give me some time and do some paper trades and then start criticizing if necessary.
 

Matt

Administrator
Staff member
I am absolutely fine with "constructive" criticism without any prejudice, Matt. You very well know me. I guess people should give me some time and do some paper trades and then start criticizing if necessary.
Constructively, I would argue that giving it time and paper trades are not necessary here. If you're confident enough in the system, it should be provable and transparent enough to assess by examining the underlying methodologies.

I'm not against active investing, but it is easy to hide flaws within a system, and it could be that they are hidden unintentionally and without any wrongdoing.

Bear in mind I get pitched investment strategies from hedge funds, and active ETFs, and alts/structured notes from people all the time, and it isn't my job to say no to every one of them, but it is my job to make sure that I don't put money into systems and strategies that aren't properly built.

I'm coming at this the same way I would any professional investment, I don't see what you are doing as a hobby blog or fun, because people may well make investment decisions based upon it.
 

What The Heck?

Master Blaster
Constructively, I would argue that giving it time and paper trades are not necessary here. If you're confident enough in the system, it should be provable and transparent enough to assess by examining the underlying methodologies.

I'm not against active investing, but it is easy to hide flaws within a system, and it could be that they are hidden unintentionally and without any wrongdoing.

Bear in mind I get pitched investment strategies from hedge funds, and active ETFs, and alts/structured notes from people all the time, and it isn't my job to say no to every one of them, but it is my job to make sure that I don't put money into systems and strategies that aren't properly built.

I'm coming at this the same way I would any professional investment, I don't see what you are doing as a hobby blog or fun, because people may well make investment decisions based upon it.
Absolutely fine. You can see how the portfolio performs over a period of time. You don't judge index funds in a day right? You need to give it certain time and then judge for yourself. Paper trades are necessary for beginners in my opinion. Also I strongly suggest to go through the "Disclaimer" page in my website before even taking any of my trades. I am not responsible for losses or profits of anyone. And I have laid out my stock picking and investing strategy clearly, here and in my website.
 
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