AA CLE->LIM - Waiting for an Award to Open Up - Possible?

[knick1959]

So, months ago I asked this on FT and they convinced me to wait, and to sign up on Expert Flyer so it will watch for me. I did both. I'm here now because my patience is waivering, and I need help wth a sanity check. Any opinions here?

Originally I picked the AA flight I wanted (4/1/2015 - no joke!) and booked the SINGLE Business class (one way) award that was available ... on the BA site with Avios. It wasn't the score of a lifetime at 40k avios, but I had 259k while other buckets were not as high, so no big deal. But I only found 1, and I needed 2. Plenty of time to wait, which is what I've been doing.

I was close to 65k in my AA account, so I topped it off with some MS, in case I needed to use these to get an AAnytime award seat on this flight. I mean, my wife would be really mad at me if she didn't have a ticket . These are still there ...

I'm now approaching 5 months out and neither Expert Flyer or my own periodic manual checks I did, just to be safe, have shown any movement. However, while I was originally the only seat showing as assigned in F/B, about 1/3 of the seats are now assigned. Perhaps even more have sold.

I know I still have 5 months, but I'm not much of a gambler. Still, 65k is a boatload of miles, although I realized I'd get 6.5k back for having the right CC. So 59k. That's made me even more anxious. But I do still have 159k at BA (after hop-skipping flights all over SA. What a great program for SA travel).

What are the chances of an award flight opening up? Are there any common patterns (time periods to watch for)? Might the AAnytime price go up if I wait too long? Or do I simply buy some piece of mind for 59k miles? All our other flights are booked ... except for our RT to Galapagos; just sent a few SPG miles to top off my LAN account to acquire those flights. I just need to get my wife to Peru with me!

Thanks in advance. Sorry for the length.

 

[Matt]

The number in question here is 27K AA miles. Not 65K. You would need 35K anyway, and you get a rebate on the 30K.

The question only you can answer: "Is the stress of not having that seat worth 27K"? If so, book it at 65K,

Another way to look at it - could you book it at 65K now, and then if saver opens up book that and cancel this? That would have a $150 fee. Note: I have never tried it, so don't know if you would hit a hurdle by trying to hold two tickets for the same person on the same flight or not.

Lastly, could you book a seat in Coach and live with being split up on the flight, but both getting there? If space opens up you could change the Coach to Biz for 20K.

If you go for door #1 and book the AAnytime, you could monitor the inventory and decide that when it hits 3 seats you buy, that will allow more time for a Saver to open up.

 

[knick1959]

The number in question here is 27K AA miles. Not 65K. You would need 35K anyway, and you get a rebate on the 30K.

Yes, your point is right on, except that if the Saver award would appear, I could use 40k Avios instead, leaving my 65k AA miles intact. I've still got boatloads of Avios. But you're still right in that the delta isn't really 65/59k, it's something much smaller than that.

Thanks again, I'll sleep on that.

 

[knick1959]

I'm working on a Final Answer, but I believe I'll just snag the ticket at full AAnytime pricing in the next couple of days. I WILL also watch for a saver award to open and, if it does, try to carefully acquire that and cancel the more expensive angle.

In my original FT thread, I did ask if booking the same person in 2 seats on the same flight was even possible. I got no answer (not even a "only you can answer that, after you try it" snob-snort). It was also suggested that the award allocation algorithm might be so sensitive that the very act of me reserving a seat with AAny miles might reduce the chance that saver awards are ever added.

One of my posts there was deleted for mod-stupid reasons, as I questioned the worthwhileness of some of the typical FT short answers. Fortunately, there were some helpful folks, too, and a PM or 2. Dated 6/5:

http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/american-airlines-aadvantage-pre-merger/1591657-does-aa-release-new-international-awards-over-time.html

 

[smittytabb]

I'm working on a Final Answer, but I believe I'll just snag the ticket at full AAnytime pricing in the next couple of days. I WILL also watch for a saver award to open and, if it does, try to carefully acquire that and cancel the more expensive angle.

In my original FT thread, I did ask if booking the same person in 2 seats on the same flight was even possible. I got no answer (not even a "only you can answer that, after you try it" snob-snort). It was also suggested that the award allocation algorithm might be so sensitive that the very act of me reserving a seat with AAny miles might reduce the chance that saver awards are ever added.

One of my posts there was deleted for mod-stupid reasons, as I questioned the worthwhileness of some of the typical FT short answers. Fortunately, there were some helpful folks, too, and a PM or 2. Dated 6/5:

http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/american-airlines-aadvantage-pre-merger/1591657-does-aa-release-new-international-awards-over-time.html

You cannot book same person in two different seats or awards, which you probably know. If you are going to book the AAnytime award, just do it. Don't wait. Inventory does change and if tickets are selling for that cabin, things could change. I would not expect to see Saver open up at all until last minute at this point, but it is all speculation. I have booked many awards and it is a tough thing to predict. You have to ask yourself in which situation would you have the most regret. If not getting both of you into the same cabin on an award would be your biggest regret, book now. If not, play around with the options and see where you are comfortable. There is no exact science here. Every one of these plays out differently.

 

[Matt]

You cannot book same person in two different seats or awards

Even if you use different programs? EG AA for the first hold, then book the low cost with BA, secure the seat and cancel AA?

I don't know - just asking here..

 

[smittytabb]

Even if you use different programs? EG AA for the first hold, then book the low cost with BA, secure the seat and cancel AA?

I don't know - just asking here..

I don't *know* for sure, but I have to think that since you have to give your name and birthdate and such, it would not work. Not sure I would want to try it either, because it could bump the first reservation. AA in their system if you book anything that overlaps with anything else, they bump the first reservation. This even happens if you put a flight on hold.

 

[knick1959]

So I DID snag the AAnytime ticket today. My AA account is down to a measely 2500 points. Not sure when the 6500 point rebate will actually show, but that will only help a little .

Thanks for all of your input!