Tagging Miles

Singapore Airlines KrisFlyer Devaluation

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Singapore Airlines KrisFlyer program has announced that they will be amending their award chart and removing some key benefits. Worse, they’ve essentially given KrisFlyer members only three weeks to respond and plan under the old award chart. While this Singapore Airlines KrisFlyer Devaluation is not the end of the world, it is unfortunate.

Background

Singapore Airlines KrisFlyer program is one of the easier programs to utilize, for a few reasons.

  1. They provide very reasonable amounts of award space to their own members for all cabins.
  2. Singapore Airlines KrisFlyer is a transfer partner of all major transferable point currencies (Ultimate Rewards, Membership Rewards, Citi Thank You, and Starwood Preferred Guest).
  3. Singapore Airlines operates flights to the US, both direct (SFO-SIN), and via 5th Freedom rights (SIN-NRT-LAX, SIN-FRA-JFK, etc), so you can in theory, fly entirely on Singapore Airlines metal.

Additionally, there hasn’t been a Singapore Airlines KrisFlyer Program Devaluation in quite some time. In fact, Singapore’s own announcement states:

We had last made adjustments to award levels in various zones in 2012

Its hard to fault them in this one. Mile Lion has a more complete history of Singapore Airlines KrisFlyer devaluations, if you are curious.

Singapore Airlines KrisFlyer Devaluation 2017

Singapore Airlines KrisFlyer Devaluation

There are a few changes that Singapore Airlines is making in 2017. All are very much tied together, but I’ll try to parse them out below:

Award Chart Update: Singapore Airlines KrisFlyer award chart goes by zones (screenshot of old chart), and the fact is, some of those zones are going up. If you compare the old award chart to the new one (screenshot of new award chart), you’ll see that it doesn’t look materially horrible. I’d argue that if it stopped here, its not as bad as the American Airlines devaluation announced in 2015 and enacted in March 2016. 

No More Fuel Surcharges for Awards on Singapore Airlines or Silk Air metal: This is excellent. Its needed. Fuel has been cheap for a while, and I suspect that since some airlines have already done away with the fuel surcharge, it is at least getting on the radar of folks. This is pure money in your pocket. Its not as meaningful as British Airways Avios fuel surcharges, but, its still meaningful. On a recent trip, I paid about $50 in fuel surcharges for a couple of regional business class flights in Asia. Every little bit helps.

So far, we’re looking pretty positive, right?

Wrong. Here’s the kicker:

No More 15% Discount on Mileage Required When Booked Online: Previously you could save 15% of the mileage required by booking online. In fact, if the itinerary was mixed (e.g. business for one leg and Suites for another, like my itinerary last year, you could still get the 15% even by calling, if you at least tried to do it online first). So that changes the math on the devaluation; essentially, the starting point is a 15% increase, rather than the previous award chart.

How big a deal are the changes? I did a brief analysis of traveling from Zone 13, which is the US East Coast and Houston, to Zone 9, which is Eastern Australia and New Zealand, and the difference is pretty drastic, take a look:

Singapore Airlines KrisFlyer Devaluation

So, using this example above (which I took out the 15% discount from the old chart, mind you), each class of service jumped a bunch, double digits at least. You can look further by looking at the old award chart, and the new one.

The changes go into effect for awards ticketed on or after 23 March 2017 – So if you are looking for an award that you see availability for – do not delay.

Bottom Line

No devaluation is good. This Singapore Airlines KrisFlyer devaluation and past ones seem to have been more reasonable over the years, as compared to some US based airline program award changes. But the fact remains, it hurts. At least Singapore tried to find something of a balance here. I would just argue that if you consider the impact, you must include that 15% discount going away as a comparison.

Of course, there are ways that these new developments can give you an opportunity for savings, you just have to look harder.

What are your thoughts of this devaluation?
 

American’s AAdvantage Program Changes – June 2016

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American Airlines is making changes to their AAdvantage Program, and they are not pretty. This is of course, a follow-up devaluation to the one announced November, 2015.
There are a bunch of changes – here’s the high points, plus my own analysis.

AAdvantage Redeemable Mileage (RDM) Earning Rate Goes Revenue Based

Not a huge surprise here. We knew they were going to do it, “sometime in 2016” – well that date is 1 August 2016.
Here’s the earn rates:
AAdvantage RDM earn rates as of 1 August 2016 - courtesy of American airlines.

AAdvantage RDM earn rates as of 1 August 2016 – courtesy of American airlines.

Note, that the announcement says it’ll tell you how many miles you’ll earn for flights after 1 August 2016 when you book on American’s website, but as of this writing, it is not showing. 

Also – the minimum mileage guarantee goes away on Shuttle flights starting 1 August 2016.

New AAdvantage Status Level

This is one I was definitely relieved about – the new status is Platinum Pro, and will require 75,000 Elite Qualifying Miles (EQMs) to attain.
Four AAdvantage Status Levels in 2017. Courtesy of American Airlines.

Four AAdvantage Status Levels in 2017. Courtesy of American Airlines.

The benefits of Platinum Pro include:
  • Complimentary upgrades on flights within North America and between the U.S. and Central America confirmed at 72 hours.
  • Earn 9 award miles/U.S. dollar (80% bonus)
  • 2 free checked bags
  • oneworld® Sapphire status

This one is a push, in my opinion, as they could have just as easily instituted another level at 125k instead of 75k miles, mirroring Delta (granted, they’d need to tweak the other levels too).

The Elite Qualifying Dollars (EQD) Shoe Drops

Here’s the most painful part of the changes, in my opinion – AAdvantage introduces Elite Qualifying Dollars (EQD). This was something I was expecting in the November announcement, and was quite relieved when it wasn’t there. Many figured this was a far gone conclusion, well, now it has happened, and it’s not pretty.
Elite Status Qualification Requirements now include Elite Qualifying Dollars.

Elite Status Qualification Requirements now include Elite Qualifying Dollars.

It is important to note that your Elite Qualifying Dollar amount is calculated from the base fare plus carrier-imposed fees, not the total amount of how much you pay American, so $12,000 could be much more, depending on where you’re flying out of. For example, my read is that if you fly out of the United Kingdom a bunch, you’ll be paying the Air Passenger Duty (APD), which won’t count to your EQD total.
As of this writing, it is not clear whether there will be waivers, whether for members who live overseas, or for those who hold an American Airlines credit card. If I were at Citi, I’d want some arrangement to have a waiver, especially for the Citi Executive, but I’m not exactly impartial here.

Interesting things that stand out:

Elite Qualifying Dollars will impact your upgrade changes: it really stands out to me that later American will have a way to associate your Elite Qualifying Dollars with your account to prioritize you on the upgrade list.
The way your upgrade request is prioritized will change later in 2017. You’ll be listed according to your elite status level followed by the number of EQDs earned in the last 12 months.
This is perhaps the most blatant “what have you done for me lately,” move I’ve seen, and I find it offensive when associated with a “loyalty program.” I also will not be surprised if they have some problems instituting it, as IT is hard.
Executive Platinum will be able to use 500-mile upgrades on Award Tickets: American will be letting elites use 500-mile upgrades on award tickets. This is perhaps the first time I’ve seen this particular benefit, so it’ll be interesting to see how it plays out.

Funny Math for Partner Marketed Flights: This FAQ also jumped out at me:

Why are award miles and EQDs for travel on partner airline marketed flights calculated differently from American marketed flights?

When you fly with a partner airline, the fare you paid isn’t always shared with American. Therefore, flights that are marketed by American’s partner airlines earn mileage and EQDs based on a percentage of the distance flown as determined by the booking code of the ticket purchased.

Wrapping Up

Overall, this puts another nail in the coffin–perhaps not quite the final one though. It will certainly thin the ranks of elite flyers out, barring EQD waivers, in 2018. I think the most noticeable change immediately will be the revenue based earning of RDMs. Ironically for me, I’ve got a flight in August, where I’ll actually earn nearly 3x the miles under the new system, but I suspect for many, it’s going to hurt. Those super cheap airfares to Asia and Europe that many have gotten on, won’t be nearly as rewarding, in some cases 50% or less.

We’ll see the biggest impacts of these changes March, 2018, when the elite ranks are thinned. I say this, because I think a lot of folks–myself included–pushed hard to requalify or get the majority of flights in before 1 June, expecting revenue based earning of RDMs to kick in around then, and decrease the earn rate. Even for folks who haven’t gotten all the way, it wouldn’t surprise me if they finish it off this year, since most of the rough changes don’t kick in until next year anyway.

Is Alaska the first in a new string of devaluations?

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Boarding the Emirates A380 via Door 1UL.

In the aftermath of the un-announced Alaska Airlines’ Emirates devaluation, Gary Leff posted: Your miles aren’t safe: Devaluations create the need for even more devaluations. While I don’t believe he’s wrong in his assertion normally, I will lay out an argument of why I don’t believe his assertion to be true in this case.

Background

In the past few years, we’ve seen the major US-based airlines’ frequent flyer programs devalue. Delta devalued their award chart, and eventually just went ahead and removed it. United followed suit and devalued their award chart. Then American released their much feared award chart changes. On average, premium cabin awards increased by 33-50%, in many cases, more. Finally, Alaska increased the cost of Emirates awards (but left all other award charts untouched–thankfully!).

Devaluations Beget Devaluations

The above order is in chronological order. Some may argue that Alaska really doesn’t belong, however I will argue quite the opposite. To that point, I’ll be focusing particularly on awards from the US to the Middle East. Every award will be looking at US to UAE.

Delta Airlines – Leveraging Wandering Aramean’s attempt at rebuilding the Delta SkyMiles chart, aptly called: “How many SkyMiles” the rates for business class are somewhere between 70,000 and 190,000 SkyMiles. There is no first class chart (perhaps because many of the core SkyMiles partners don’t fly First Class? Or maybe Delta is scared to venture into the 7 figure SkyMiles awards).

United Airlines – United breaks down their award chart based on United metal and Partner metal. Given United’s recent cutting of the DC-Dubai route, I’m going to make the assertion that you’ll need to fly on partner metal to get to Dubai. Given that assumption, you’re looking at 80,000 in business class, or 140,000 in first class.

American Airlines – American, thankfully, does not have two prices, depending on which metal you will be flying. This is good, considering American Airlines does not fly to the Middle East on their own metal. That said, their awards are, 70,000 in business class, and 115,000 in first class.

Alaska Airlines – Alaska, as I mentioned earlier, only devalued their Emirates redemption, so we’ll only focus on that here. To fly from the US to the UAE, it now costs 82,500 in business class, and 150,000 in first class.

Lets summarize that data, shall we:

UAE Award Charts-1

As they say, a picture says a thousand words.

Analysis

After Alaska Airlines’ changes, business class is in parity. First class is a bit high, but, by my opinion, so is United. Ironic, that American, which probably has access to the best or at least second best first class products to the Middle East, requires the fewest miles for that impressive first class product. Overall though, I’d say that the above chart illustrates that Alaska was attempting to move from the lower end, to perhaps the higher end, but still is in parity.

The Elephant in the Room – Alaska Airlines Routing Rules

It is fair to say that the true value of the Alaska Airlines award on Emirates wasn’t to the Middle East. Rather it is to Asia, Europe, or Africa. While that is not the focus of this post, I’ll go ahead and say this – United is cheaper than Alaska’s new awards (by 50,000-60,000), despite United’s rather lax routing rules. American’s routing rules mean that the only way you get to Asia is if you fly direct, or pay for two awards, so not terribly relevant to the discussion. I never know what the answer is with Delta, so I’ll defer to you all, as I’m sure you, the reader, have more experience with Delta awards than I do.

Conclusion

I started this post off, making the assertion that in the case of Alaska Airlines’ devaluation of its Emirates awards, will not beget further devaluations. This is a risky assertion, given that an airline could prove me wrong with a few taps on the keyboard (or formerly, a few strokes of the pen). But I believe based on the evidence I’ve laid out, Alaska Airlines is merely moving into parity with the other airlines. Are some awards still better than others? Absolutely. I would argue that United and Alaska, while higher in cost, are better, because of their more lax routing rules. American, while lower in mileage cost, is less lax in their routing rules. Based on the new mileage costs, is there a clear winner? I would say, it depends, primarily, on where you want to go.

What do you think? Is Alaska the last to devalue in the previous string, or are they the first in a new string of devaluations?

 

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